15−18 September 2026
Moscow, Crocus Expo, Pavillion 3
How the catering market is developing: opinions of industry experts
Published on: Nov 26, 2025
Reading Time: 5 min
Svetlana Silenina
Head of Consumer Market
INFOLine
According to INFOLine, the catering market in 2024 amounted to 5.3 trillion rubles and after all the crises showed double-digit growth. According to the results of the first half of the year, its dynamics (net of inflation) is estimated at 8%, while the dynamics of retail is 2.5%.
The catering market faces most of the problems that the consumer market also has: staff shortages, competition, rising costs, expensive borrowed funds, etc. But this industry still continues to develop, and for suppliers it is good because it has a large number of companies and weak consolidation.
In addition, the number of catering establishments is growing every year. Of course, the volume of these establishments differs by region, and Moscow and St. Petersburg occupy leading positions. But other regions are also catching up, which is facilitated by the increased attention of the consumer to the catering market and the development of domestic tourism. Especially positive dynamics is observed in the south of the Krasnodar Territory, in the Crimea, Tatarstan, Nizhny Novgorod.
Along with the dynamic development of catering, ready-made food has become a trend in retail. In 2024, it borrowed a little less than one trillion rubles, but at the same time it "ate up" the share not from catering, but from retail itself, since the buyer comes to the store and chooses to buy a ready-made packaged dish, and not pasta, which still needs to be cooked at home, and cutlets that need to be fried. At the same time, retail does not have enough production capacity to produce the required volume of ready-to-eat food, and there is still some distrust of this segment on the part of the consumer. Catering responds to the development of ready-to-eat food in retail with its own ready-made solutions, delivery, representation on various sites and aggregators, installation of micromarkets in offices, etc.
Despite the fact that last year was quite good for the catering market, this year it is experiencing a slowdown: the number of checks and the average check are decreasing, and there are also problems in turnover.
Dmitry Agapenko
Director of Strategic Marketing, Research & Innovation
Unirest Company (ROSTIC'S brand)
The company entered 2024 after the crisis, but already in the second half of 2024, it managed to rectify the situation due to successfully launched marketing activities. In 2025, growth continued, but from about the third quarter it slowed down, as in the entire market. "We remain cautiously optimistic, focusing on our guests, on service, speed of service and quality," the speaker emphasized.
One of the company's goals is to go to small towns. By the end of 2028, it is planned to open 750 restaurants, including in small towns.
Points of contact with the consumer are expanding. "I really liked how at the previous session one of my colleagues said that in fact we are not fighting for different consumers – we are fighting for the wallet of the same consumer and for the shares of this wallet in different channels," said Dmitry. Last year, the company entered e-com and began cooperation with Samokat, and later established interaction with offline retail — Magnit and X5 Group.
In the next 2-3 years, no significant jumps are expected in the market, but there are several directions that can move the industry forward:
// Competition with ready-made food
// Access to small towns
// New formats
// Customer experience
// Digitalization
Sergey Rumyantsev
Founder
ONE PRICE COFFEE chain
Since November 2024, there has been a noticeable slowdown in growth rates. The positive dynamics are probably due to higher prices, but this leads to a reduction in the share in the wallet. "It seems to me that times will not be easier, but this is even good. Each crisis clears the market, and those with a higher scale and efficiency will gradually take market share," said Sergey.
The market experienced a coffee crisis. Last year, prices for green beans increased by 60-70%, which was due to weather factors, logistics, and global changes. Therefore, at the beginning of 2025, retail prices for coffee increased.
As for consumers, OnePriceCoffee was surprised to find that the age of their customers today is on average 25-40 years old. "We somehow missed the fact that we need to rejuvenate all the time. I think we need to follow the consumer down. Anyway, trends are set by people aged 18-30, and everyone else is trying to follow them. The trend for Asia, for new functional drinks and functional dishes is all set by young people, and, accordingly, everyone who is older follows them. Therefore, all chains need to rejuvenate, go down - this, it seems to me, should be a movement," the speaker said.
Alexander Nazarov
Franchising Leader
MYBOX
The biggest challenge for a company is to attract new guests, that is, to provide the traffic that can then be generated into revenue. Now there is no problem with revenue as such. There is a problem with those who process this revenue - with line personnel. This is a really big challenge in small towns, medium-sized and large ones.
In the fourth quarter of 2025 Mybox plans to launch delivery, which, according to the company, will reach 40-50%. "If we reach 13-14 million, it will be a very good economy and the payback period will be 15-16 months," Alexander said. The company also plans to simplify and reduce the menu.
Roman Oreshkin
CEO (Managing Partner)
Secret Kitchen
According to Roman, Secret Kitchen is growing. We are growing. In 2024-2025, the growth of like-for-like checks was 8%. The return rate has improved for a couple of days: if earlier one purchase was made once every 27-28 days, now it is every 25-26 days. "If you compare it with retail, these are very bad numbers. If you compare it with catering, the average is 34-35 days," the speaker emphasized.
A number of external factors show that purchasing power is declining, but this has not yet affected the average check in Secret Kitchen. In Moscow, the average check is 3,110 rubles for August, and in the regions - 2,650 rubles. At the same time, the average check in the industry as a whole is lower both in Moscow and in the regions. "For this reason and in terms of the number of items in the check, we are definitely a few tenths higher than other market players," Roman added.
Tatyana Kornienko
Concept Director
"Volkonsky"
The bakery market is now doing very well and is actively developing in Moscow and in the regions. People began to come to bakeries again, they open in every residential complex, and there are many of them. But the company faced its own local crisis, namely the closure of production. Therefore, some of the products are produced on the basis of small capacities of retail facilities, and some are outsourced.
Tatyana noted that one of the problems of the industry is the problem with personnel, which is not only that there is a shortage of personnel, but also in its specifics. Young people who have now come to work in the industry are very self-sufficient, demanding of environmental friendliness of interaction both on the part of management and guests. Therefore, it is quite difficult to make previous demands on them, as well as to keep them.
As for the guests of Volkonsky, they are mostly traditionalists. But according to the speaker, most people come to traditionalism with age. It is important to remind the young audience about yourself in order to be in its information field, and so that they know about the existence of the brand and what is good about it. "Understanding the audience will allow us to maintain contact with it and convey to young people that they will also be interested in us: maybe not now, but tomorrow," concluded Tatiana.
