15−18 September 2026
Moscow, Crocus Expo, Pavillion 3
Food market: results of 2025 and forecasts for 2026
Published on: Jan 28, 2026
Reading Time: 5 min
Results of 2025: the market is slowing down
According to Rosstat, food production in Russia in January-November 2025 decreased by 0.7%, beverage production - by 3.6%. This is the first decline in the food industry in 15 years.
The dynamics by category were multidirectional: growth was maintained in meat and dairy processing, cheese and butter, while the production of fish, sunflower oil and beverages decreased.
The retail food market looked more stable, but even here the growth rate slowed down noticeably. At the end of the first half of 2025, retail trade turnover increased by 2.6% in comparable prices, while food sales increased by 3.1% to 6.9 trillion rubles. At the same time, the growth was mainly provided by the price factor, and not by an increase in physical consumption.
At the end of the first half of 2025, online sales of food products increased by 27.8% and reached 773 billion rubles. The share of the online channel increased by 0.6 percentage points and amounted to 5.5% of the market.
In the second half of the year, the market entered negative dynamics: from the third quarter, sales volumes began to decline even compared to 2024, which was a signal of cooling demand.
Among the key reasons for the decline in volumes in the food market, Ivan Fedyakov, CEO of INFOLine, highlights the demographic factor, rising costs, structural changes in trade and increased state regulation.
Population decline has a direct impact on demand in a number of categories, primarily in the baby food segment. At the same time, food retail is operating in an environment of record low margins amid rising personnel costs, rent, and fiscal burden. Additional pressure is exerted by the transformation of retail formats: the development of online channels reduces the efficiency of large-format stores and accelerates the redistribution of customer traffic.
At the same time, Ivan Fedyakov draws attention to the fundamental difference between the monetary and physical indicators of the market. The actual consumption of food products in terms of weight does not decrease in the long term, but the growth of retail turnover is ensured by packages and prices, and not by an increase in volumes.
One of the key adaptation mechanisms is shrinkflation - a reduction in packaging while maintaining the price, which has already affected the basic categories.
A Look at 2026: Market Prospects
According to the expert, the Russian food market enters 2026 with expectations of negative dynamics in the first half of the year. Among the strategic areas that allow businesses to adapt and find growth points, the following can be distinguished:
Ready-to-eat food is the main driver of the market
Expanding the range and increasing the share of ready-to-eat meals on sales floors is becoming one of the key growth drivers, including the realignment of space and investment in production. Ready-to-eat food in supermarkets already occupies about 10% of retail space, and this share will grow.
According to a study by APPGE and NTech, in January-September 2025, the turnover of the ready-to-eat food category increased by 32% in monetary terms and by 17% in kind. The INFOLine agency predicts the capacity of the ready-to-eat food market at the level of 1.14 trillion rubles by the end of 2025 (+20% by 2024). At the same time, a shortage of production capacity may become a constraining factor.
Development of B2B sales
The supply of groceries and ready-made food to offices, HoReCa enterprises and the corporate segment are considered as a promising direction for food retail.
Use of private labels
The growth in the share of private labels allows retail chains to flexibly manage the assortment and price offer, as well as go beyond the boundaries of classic retail. Private labels are becoming a tool for scaling sales and entering wholesale and professional channels.
Development of franchise formats
Franchising is becoming one of the key trends in 2026. This format allows the chains to continue expanding in the face of regulatory restrictions on the share of presence in the regions.
Thus, the development of private labels, the emphasis on ready-to-eat food and online sales remain key growth points in the medium term.
In the context of structural transformation, the WorldFood Moscow exhibition remains a key business platform for food market professionals. It brings together manufacturers, distributors, retailers and HoReCa, allowing you to assess real demand trends, present new products and find partners for distribution and export.